Thursday, March 17, 2011

Some nuance on destruction

Some nuance on destruction
"In the aftermath of the quake and tsunami in Japan, Larry Summers talked about the human tragedy and then gave his thoughts on the economic impact:

“If you look, this is clearly going to add complexity to Japan’s challenge of economic recovery,” Summers said.
“It may lead to some temporary increments, ironically, to GDP, as a process of rebuilding takes place.
In the wake of the earlier Kobe earthquake, Japan actually gained some economic strength.”

In Parts I and Part II I discussed why I thought this conclusion was bizarre.
It unmistakenly suggests without qualification, that there can be a positive financial impact from destruction.

As some commenters pointed out, GDP is a flow and wealth is a stock.
That is, GDP compares the change in output over time while wealth is a snapshot.
So it is possible to lose wealth (destroy buildings) while GDP goes up.
It’s possible.
I don’t think it’s very likely but it’s possible."

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