RealClearPolitics - Odds Favor GOP Gaining Senate Control in 2012
Tossup: Bill Nelson (Florida), Debbie Stabenow (Mich.), Claire McCaskill (Mo.), Jon Tester (Mont.), Virginia (open; Jim Webb is retiring), Wisconsin (open; Herb Kohl is retiring).
.....In 2006, Michigan looked like it would be competitive until September or so.
Stabenow pulled away against fairly weak competition and won handily.
This time, the environment is much worse for Democrats. Her opposition isn’t top-notch, but her approval ratings have been well below 50 percent in a state that swung heavily toward Republicans in 2010.
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