"Last year we exposed the reasoning for the extremely predictable cyclicality in US macro-economic surprise data.Each year of the last few, the third quarter has exhibited unusual "strength" surprising 'economists' - thanks to government agencies executing their final budgets to use up all their allotments - only to stabilize in Q4 and the fade rapidly in Q1.
2013 was "different" as we had the government shutdown which threw the seasonal pattern off... but once the agencies were re-opened, the spice did flow and we got what is now clearly not a sustainable 'surprise' in growth but a lagged cyclical bounce.
However, the lag introduced by the shutdown is now catching up to us - so it is different this time (2mo. lag) but the same...
Step-by-step...Why the "Q4 recovery is sustainable" meme is crap..."
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