"We pundit types look at home-stretch gaffes like Orman's, or Tom Harkin creeping out on Joni Ernst, or any of the other gaffe daffodils currently floating in the political breeze, and think:
I'm not sure that actually happens as much as the conventional terms of political analysis suggest. What actually happens is that supporters locked into a candidate become discouraged by campaign stumbles and stay home, especially if they get the impression he's thrown away his chances for victory.
Conversely, the locked-in supporters of the opposing candidate are energized by the perception of weakness, or perhaps enraged by beyond-the-pale comments.
It's more about turnout than persuasion, for an increasingly large window of time before the election."
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