Saturday, March 21, 2015

Why the US Should Worry About Russia, Not China

Why the US Should Worry About Russia, Not China | The Diplomat:
"Last Friday, the United States released its updated Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower (CS-21).
One of the biggest critiques of the first Cooperative Strategy concentrated on the difficulty of fitting China and Russia into the “cooperative” frame.
China continues to expand its navy and has obviously undertaken a set of assertive actions in the East and South China Seas.
Russia has, in recent years, invaded Georgia and Ukraine, effectively annexing parts of both countries. 
How does it make sense to include either of these countries under the tab “cooperation?”
...Russia and China pose the greatest potential threats to the vision of liberal international order implicit in CS-21, a situation that has more or less held since 1949.
Yet China is, for the first time in its history, deeply dependent on the sea. 
...Russia is different. 
While we should generally view geographically determinist accounts with skepticism, there is no question that the maritime sphere is far less important to Russia than it is to the United States or China.
Russia benefits less from a reliable set of interlocking regimes and procedures for managing the maritime sphere, and can take advantage of asymmetric opportunities to disrupt that system.
In short, Russia has the luxury of playing the spoiler, because Moscow understands that everyone else needs the sea more than Russia does. 
Beijing, on the other hand, needs the system of order that the United States has constructed in the maritime sphere. 
While China may fight hard to ensure it gets an appropriate seat, it’s far less likely than Russia to try to upend the table."

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