Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Collapse of the EU-----Greece’s Bridge to Nowhere

Macro and Markets » Greece’s Bridge to Nowhere
Negotiations continue today between Greece and its creditors, with reports that the government has presented a revised proposal that offers minor concessions in an effort to break the deadlock.
A deal is needed in the next week if a package of assistance is to be put in place before end-month payments of $1.7 billion are due to the IMF.
While this is not a hard deadline—a short-term default to the IMF need not sink the Greek economy—the government is out of cash and it is hard to imagine how they make critical domestic payments without an injection of cash from creditors.
At times like this, the focus is always on getting a deal done, but this negotiation, even if successful, is likely to defer hard choices for a few months in the hope that Greek domestic politics will change to allow a third bail-out program.
The two sides are far apart, both in terms of the policies that need to be taken in the short term and the longer term vision for restoring growth.
It is hard not to conclude this is a bridge to nowhere.
A few points.
The two sides are farther apart than the headline numbers suggest. 

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