Friday, September 25, 2015

Why are Climate Models so Estranged from Reality

Why are Climate Models so Estranged from Reality | al fin next level
Why do climate models predict apocalyptic levels of warming that do not match up with reality? 
It comes down to assumptions being made about numerous unknown dynamic quantities that are included in — and excluded from — the models. 
Here is a list of some of these unknown dynamic parameters that are “guessed at” (or conveniently omitted) when computer modelers of climate generate their apocalyptic predictions:
Ocean Oscillations : What about the larger and longer ocean effects like the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole), etc. Understood? No. Contribution in the models : 0%.
Ocean Currents : Are the major ocean currents, such as the THC (Thermohaline Circulation), understood? Well we do know a lot about them – we know where they go and how big they are, and what is in them (including heat), and we know much about how they affect climate – but we know very little about what changes them and by how much or over what time scale. In summary – Understood? No. Contribution in the models : 0%.
Volcanoes : Understood? No. Contribution in the models : 0%.
Wind : Understood? No. Contribution in the models : 0%.
Water cycle (ocean evaporation, precipitation) : Understood? Partly. Contribution in the models : the contribution in the climate models is actually slightly negative, but it is built into a larger total which I address later.
The Sun : Understood? No. Contribution in the models : 0%. Now this may come as a surprise to some people, because the Sun has been studied for centuries, we know that it is the source of virtually all the surface and atmospheric heat on Earth, and we do know quite a lot about it. Details of the 11(ish) year sunspot cycle, for example, have been recorded for centuries. But we don’t know what causes sunspots and we can’t predict even one sunspot cycle ahead. Various longer cycles in solar activity have been proposed, but we don’t even know for sure what those longer cycles are or have been, we don’t know what causes them, and we can’t predict them. On top of that, we don’t know what the sun’s effect on climate is – yes we can see big climate changes in the past and we are pretty sure that the sun played a major role (if it wasn’t the sun then what on Earth was it?) but we don’t know how the sun did it and in any case we don’t know what the sun will do next. So the assessment for the sun in climate models is : Understood? No. Contribution in the models : 0%. [Reminder : this is the contribution to predicted future warming]
 Lots more at link
The following table summarises all of the above:
FactorUnderstood?Contribution to models’ predicted future warming
ENSONo0%
Ocean OscillationsNo0%
Ocean CurrentsNo0%
VolcanoesNo0%
WindNo0%
Water CyclePartly(built into Water Vapour, below)
The SunNo0%
Galactic Cosmic Rays (and aerosols)No0%
Milankovich cyclesNo0%
Carbon DioxideYes37%
Water VapourPartly22% but suspect
CloudsNo41%, all highly suspect
Other (in case I have missed anything)0%
__ Source
Much more at the article linked above.
What we seem to be left with, is that computer climate models exclude many of the most important parameters contributing to real world climate. 
Of the parameters that are included, several of them appear to be based upon sloppy — even faith-based — assumptions. 
No wonder they fail the test of observation.
They are no better than the predictions of psychic grifters.
Thus, it looks as if the great green climate apocalypse movement and associated green energy scam, are nothing more than a money-grab by political cronies and a power grab by political insiders — of the governmental, the inter-governmental, and the non-governmental varieties . . .
… When we talk about the lefty-Luddite green dieoff.orgiasts, we are referring to the groupthinking echo choirs pulling the strings of governments in Europe and the Anglosphere.
These miscreants also control much of media, academia, foundations, many religious entities, and several other cultural institutions.
What kind of society and people would stand back and allow these abominations to destroy their lives, livelihoods, and their futures — and the minds of their children?
We’re going to need a lot more guillotines! ;-)
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