Saturday, January 23, 2016

Must read of the day!-----Cosmic Cycles, not Carbon Dioxide, Control Climate

Cosmic Cycles, not Carbon Dioxide, Control Climate | Somewhat Reasonable
Those who think the political war on carbon will cool the globe or keep climate stable need to study climate history.
Temperatures on Earth dance to a cyclic rhythm every hour, every day, every month, every season, every year, and to every beat of the sun-spot and glacial cycles.
...Then there is the 22 year sun-spot cycle, which correlates with cycles of floods and droughts. 
Sunspot cycles are indicators of solar activity which causes periods of global warming and cooling.
Earth’s climate is also disrupted periodically by the effects of changing winds, ocean hot spots and submarine volcanism that produce the El Nino Southern Oscillation.
The least recognised but most dangerous climate cycle is the glacial cycle. 
We live in the Holocene Epoch, the latest brief warm phase of the Pleistocene Ice Age.
The climate history of the Holocene, and its predecessor the Eemian, are well documented in ice core logs and other records in the rocks.
Each cycle consists of a glacial age of about 80,000 years followed by a warmer age of about 20,000 years, with peak warming occurring over about 12,000 years.
Our modern warm era commenced 12,000 years ago, so it is probably nearing its end.
...On an even longer time scale, oscillation of the solar system through the plane of the Galaxy seems to trigger magnetic reversals and violent spasms of volcanism, crustal movements glaciation and species extinction. Earth is never still for long.
What about the role of carbon dioxide in climate? 
Al Gore did a great job to dramatise the recurring glacial cycles in his widely acclaimed work of science fiction.
But he missed two inconvenient truths.

  • First, ice cores show that in the glacial spring-time the temperature rose BEFORE the CO2 levels rose. Therefore the rising CO2 cannot be a CAUSE of the warming – it is a RESULT of CO2 being expelled from the warming oceans.
  • Second, at the top of every summer-time in the glacial cycle, the high levels of CO2 in the atmosphere were unable to prevent the cooling into the next cycle of ice.

We are already in the autumn of the current glacial cycle and nothing man can do will change that. Global temperatures today are lower than they were in Roman and Medieval times. 
...The transition from Greenhouse Earth to Icehouse Earth always occurs suddenly.
Once our verdant greenhouse is gone, life of Earth will ne
ver be the same again.
The warm days, seasons, years and epochs have never been a deadly threat to life on Earth.
Frost, snow, hail and ice are the killers.
If our descendants do not have the energy, resources and wisdom to keep their people warm and fed through the coming glacial epoch, humans may follow our Neanderthal cousins who perished in the last glacial winter, just 20,000 years ago.
It is a wonder of the modern era that people who cannot accurately forecast next weekend’s weather claim they can regulate the temperature of the whole globe by bashing industry and taxing carbon.
There is NO evidence in climate history that carbon dioxide has a detectable effect on global temperatures. 
However if our continued use of cheap reliable hydro-carbon energy does slightly delay the onset of the next glacial winter, we and all life on Earth should count ourselves extremely lucky.

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