"First, the good news - with the new deferred limited cessation of some hostilities deal reached in Munich, critics of the appeasement of dictators can still say "No More Munichs" without having to specify either 1938 or 2016.
I think it is obvious that Putin has taken Obama's measure and concluded that he does not have the stomach (or other anatomy further south) for a confrontation in Syria.
We aren't going to have boots on the ground occupying restive Sunni areas, and we will have only limited Special Ops sneakers on the ground....Christopher Harmer also identifies some disturbing potential plot twists.
For example:
In an attempt to fracture NATO, Russia could instigate some type of minor offensive action by Syria against Turkey.
If Turkey invoked Article Five of the North Atlantic Treaty, calling on all members of NATO to react to an attack against Turkey, individual NATO members could claim that Turkish participation in a No-Fly Zone not specifically authorized by the UN was responsible for the reaction by Syria, and therefore Article Five does not apply.
This potential effort to fracture NATO in this context would represent a continuation of the anti NATO, anti EU policies that President Putin has pursued throughout his time in power.
Hmm..."
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