Saturday, May 07, 2016

The most hated candidate usually wins

The most hated candidate usually wins | Washington Examiner:
"Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the most hated presidential candidates in history.
This much we have known for some time.
FiveThirtyEight has a great chart plotting the fact that the American people "don't just like or dislike the candidates, they really like or dislike them."
Trump, predictably, is in the stratosphere comparatively when it comes to strong unfavorable ratings, clocking in at 53 percent.
Clinton is less disliked, with 37 percent of voters having strong unfavorable feelings toward her.
The next most disliked candidate in the chart, which dates back to 1980 and includes only nominees for the two major parties, is George W. Bush, at 32 percent in 2004.
But there's something interesting about this chart that people seem to be missing in their rush to scream "See how much people hate Trump!":
Since 1984, the candidate with the higher strong unfavorable rating has won. 

  • Ronald Reagan was more strongly disliked than Walter Mondale; 
  • George H. W. Bush was more strongly disliked than Michael Dukakis; 
  • Bill Clinton was more strongly disliked than Bob Dole; 
  • George W. Bush was more strongly disliked than John Kerry; 
  • Barack Obama was more strongly disliked than John McCain and Mitt Romney.

There have only been two occasions where the more disliked person lost:
In 1992 and 2000. George H. W. Bush had higher strong unfavorable ratings but lost to Bill Clinton and Al Gore had higher strong unfavorable than George W. Bush but lost..."

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