"...But like the campaigns that bad poll numbers throw in to turmoil - some say political polling itself is at a crossroads.
..But the rise of cell phones has made traditional scientific polling much tougher to do.
A 1991 law called the Telephone Consumer Protection Act made it illegal for pollsters to use automatic dialers to call people on their cell phones....“It's gotten maybe 3 or 4 times as expensive as it used to be just two elections ago,” Zukin said.
...And because of that, many companies are working to define what the future of election polling will look like.
“Almost all polling will be done on the internet four years from now,” Zukin said.
“The problem with doing internet polling right now is twofold.
- First, it's right now not everybody is online, and this is especially true of older people who are most likely to be voters.”
- “The second is that there's no good way yet to do a probability sample where everybody has a known chance of being included in the sample of web based users.
...And once online polling finally hits its stride, some experts say there's really no limit to the kind of information it can provide.
...“Instead of being an episodic thing like it is now when it comes out, it will just be there as a data stream.
And we'll probably get there by 2020.
Certainly by 2024,...”
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