"Can Donald Trump win this election?
And if a comeback is in store, when will the polls start to show it?
It's impossible to know if Trump will make a comeback.
It's possible to imagine scenarios where Trump catches up and overtakes Clinton.
But it's important to try to figure out if those scenarios are plausible and what the early signs of a Trump comeback might be.
To that end, I analyzed polling from 11 presidential elections and came up with three rules of thumb - Trump can still win, to do so he needs to be within a few points in late September, and there isn't much time to move polls in October - to help guide readers through the next two-plus months of polling.
These guidelines came from an analysis of historical polling data,.."
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