Thursday, September 01, 2016

Polling Benchmarks Trump Needs to Overtake Clinton

Polling Benchmarks Trump Needs to Overtake Clinton | RealClearPolitics
"Can Donald Trump win this election?
And if a comeback is in store, when will the polls start to show it?
It's impossible to know if Trump will make a comeback.
Clinton is the clear favorite and leads in the polls, but there are still more than two months left in the race.
It's possible to imagine scenarios where Trump catches up and overtakes Clinton.
But it's important to try to figure out if those scenarios are plausible and what the early signs of a Trump comeback might be.
To that end, I analyzed polling from 11 presidential elections and came up with three rules of thumb - Trump can still win, to do so he needs to be within a few points in late September, and there isn't much time to move polls in October - to help guide readers through the next two-plus months of polling.
These guidelines came from an analysis of historical polling data,.."

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