"...Cassell and Fowles have studied the spike of homicides in Chicago in 2016.
Through multiple regression analysis and other tools, they conclude that an ACLU consent decree triggered a sharp reduction in stop and frisks by the Chicago Police Department, which in turn caused homicides to spike.
In other words, what Chicago police officers call the “ACLU effect” is real.
Cassell explains:
Simple visual observation of the data suggests a cause-and-effect change. . . . November 2015 [is] the break point in the homicide data.
This is precisely when stop and frisks declined in Chicago. . . "
That effect was more homicides and shootings.
Our article proceeds in several steps.
It begins by describing in general terms what is quite accurately called a “spike” in homicides in Chicago in 2016.
A 58% year-to-year change [from 480 killed in 2015 to 754 killed the next year] in America’s “Second City” is staggering, suggesting something changed dramatically to initiate the increase.
...We next explore the possibility that, as been suggested by a number of observers, a reduction in stop and frisks by the Chicago Police Department that began at the very end of 2015 was responsible for the homicide spike starting immediately thereafter.
Good reasons exist for believing that the decline in stop and frisks caused the spike. Simple visual observation of the data suggests a cause-and-effect change. . . . November 2015 [is] the break point in the homicide data.
This is precisely when stop and frisks declined in Chicago. . . "
Read on!
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