"It's like deja vu talking to people about macroeconomic models a decade ago...
..."It is not as if Ferguson’s track record is good.
In 2001 the Imperial College team’s modelling led to the culling of 6 million livestock and was criticised by epidemiological experts as severely flawed.
In various years in the early 2000s Ferguson predicted up to 136,000 deaths from mad cow disease, 200 million from bird flu and 65,000 from swine flu.
The final death toll in each case was in the hundreds.
In this case, when a Swedish team applied the modified model that Imperial put into the public domain to Sweden’s strategy, it predicted 40,000 deaths by May 1 – 15 times too high."
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