Saturday, February 20, 2021

Friday Funny: nature makes a mockery of month-ahead model forecasts.

Friday Funny: nature makes a mockery of month-ahead model forecasts.
"Sometimes, you just have to laugh. Earth is a complex system, and forecasting weather events in such a complex system is no easy task due to the built in entropy aka “chaos” of dynamic weather systems. 
  • The best we are able to forecast into the future with and skill is about 7 to 10 days. 
  • 30 years ago, the best was 5 days...
...So much for model forecasting skill less than a month ahead. 
...But we are expected to believe unverified climate models have useful forecast skill years, decades, or even a century in advance...Read all.


No comments: