Monday, February 07, 2022

Simple explanation? They jiggered the data. They lied!-----Here Is What's Behind Today's Stunning Payrolls Beat | ZeroHedge

Here Is What's Behind Today's Stunning Payrolls Beat | ZeroHedge
"the labor data indicates an economy firing on all cylinders and growing strong.
But is that true?
Well, here's what happened. 
First, looking at just the December to January change we find that while the seasonally adjusted number rose by an impressive 467K, the unadjusted number collapsed, tumbling from 150.349 million to 147.525 million, a 2.8 million drop (as it tends to do every time the year shifts from December to January) meaning that the entire delta in the January number - somewhere in the 3+ million range - is due to arbitrary adjustments overlaid on top of the data.

The plot thickens, and indeed one thing that analysts apparently forgot when they were submitting their forecasts for January's payrolls is that this is the month when the BLS adjusts data for the past 10 years...
In summary, what these revisions did was to revise 2017 job growth lower by by -61,000, 2018 lower by -26,000, 2019 revised lower by -43,000, while 2020 was revised higher by 124,000, and 2021 was also revised up 217,000, or in total a 211,000 upward revision over 5 years or 3,500 jobs per month...Read all!

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