Tuesday, December 26, 2023

CBS talking head floats the possibility of a 'black swan event' in 2024 | Blaze Media

CBS talking head floats the possibility of a 'black swan event' in 2024 | Blaze Media - JOSEPH MACKINNON
"CBS News' "Face the Nation" held a roundtable on Christmas Eve, affording various talking heads an opportunity to make predictions for 2024...
Network correspondent Catherine Herridge, the wife of a lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Air Force, suggested that "2024 may be the year of a black swan event. This is a national security event with high impact that's very hard to predict."...
Taleb defined the term thusly: 
  • "First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. 
  • Second, it carries an extreme impact.
  •  Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable."...

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