Smokescreens - Part 6 - by Tom Jefferson and Carl Heneghan

Smokescreens - Part 6 - by Tom Jefferson and Carl Heneghan

• Data, models and the respiratory virus three-shells game.
• To sum up, we do not truly know with any degree of precision what the yearly tally of deaths from influenza is.

...Second, when we write “deaths for influenza” or “influenza deaths”, we can only be certain that a fact (death) is associated with an acute respiratory episode (diagnosed in whatever way), but the sequence of events and attribution is unclear.
Third (and most worrying) is the lesson of the RSV example.
Interest in RSV started picking up as vaccine trials started running, and the best-known vaccine was licensed for pregnant women by the FDA on August 21st, 2023.
Some data supporting some of the claims made appeared missing from the approval...