Science Under Attack--Why Both Coronavirus and Climate Models Get It Wrong

Science Under Attack

"If it [a scientific hypothesis] disagrees with experiment, it’s WRONG." – Nobel Prize winner Richard Feynman

"Why Both Coronavirus and Climate Models Get It Wrong
Most coronavirus epidemiological models have been an utter failure in providing advance information on the spread and containment of the insidious virus.
Computer climate models are no better, with a dismal track record in predicting the future.
This post compares the similarities and differences of the two types of model.
But similarities and differences aside, the models are still just that – models. 
Although I remarked in an earlier post that epidemiological models are much simpler than climate models, this doesn’t mean they’re any more accurate. 
...But the major weakness of both types of model is that numerous assumptions must be made to incorporate the many variables that are not known. 
...Approximations in the models take the form of adjustable numerical parameters, often derisively termed “fudge factors” by scientists and engineers. 
The famous mathematician John von Neumann once said, “With four [adjustable] parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk.”...
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Think it can't happen in your town? Think again!-----Layoffs Due to Virus Lead to Dissension at Duluth City Hall - American Experiment

Layoffs Due to Virus Lead to Dissension at Duluth City Hall - American Experiment
"Duluth faces a potential $38 million budget shortfall Mayor Emily Larson calls “absolutely catastrophic” in the wake of declining tax revenue  projections due to the economic impact of the coronavirus. 
The dire predicament forced the city to lay off some 100 employees, implement a hiring freeze, as well as shutter a golf course and other city facilities.

City officials laid it on the line at a recent virtual city council meeting covered by the Duluth News Tribune.

Noah Schuchman, Duluth’s chief administrative officer, explained that in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, the city had asked staff to work from home to the best of their abilities. But some jobs simply were impossible to perform in that setting. He said that initially the city continued to pay idled staff nevertheless....

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Trump has a higher approval rating that Obama and Bush - TheBlaze

Trump has a higher approval rating that Obama and Bush - TheBlaze:

President Donald Trump enjoyed his highest Gallup approval rating on May 13. Trump's 49% approval rating is better than four of the last six presidents at the same time during their presidencies.

Stealing The 2020 Election Through The U.S. Mail – Issues & Insights

Stealing The 2020 Election Through The U.S. Mail – Issues & Insights
"Democrats and their media scribes have spent more than three years glued to the narrative that President Donald Trump stole the 2016 election from Hillary Clinton by colluding with Russia to rig the outcome. 
But they don’t care about the legitimacy of elections. 
If they did, they wouldn’t be agitating for voting by mail this fall.

...Few elections, even in the U.S., are ever perfectly clean. 

But the potential for a dirty election sharply increases when ballots are scattered in the wind.

“Absentee ballots are the tools of choice of election fraudsters because they are voted outside the supervision of election officials, making it easier to steal, forge, or alter them, as well as to intimidate voters,” says Hans A. von Spakovsky of the Heritage Foundation....

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Hypocrite!---‘CNN Faker’ Kaitlan Collins Responds After Trump Called Her Out In Tweet - Analyzing America

‘CNN Faker’ Kaitlan Collins Responds After Trump Called Her Out In Tweet - Analyzing America
"CNN reporter Kaitlan Collins has responded after she was caught on camera removing her mask immediately following a press conference at the White House.
As soon as the presser was over and the live feeds were cut, she removed her mask — but at least one camera was still on and recorded the whole thing.
Collins has a history of calling out Trump administration officials for not wearing a face mask at events so the incident immediately sparked a backlash.
Eric Trump shared a video of Collins removing her mask and said it served as a “reminder that CNN is a total joke.”...
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Donald J. Trump

✔@realDonaldTrump

A CNN Faker! https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1262140168947019777 …

Eric Trump

✔@EricTrump

Just a reminder that @CNN is a total joke:

“Mask-police CNN reporter @kaitlancollins caught removing hers at presser, as soon as she thought cameras were off”

Cc: @brianstelter

Lunch video-----Investigation: Why is China on the move in the South Pacific? | 60 Minut...

‘We Can’t Fight A Flood And Pritzker Back To Back’: Mayor Of Grafton, IL, Says His City Could Cease To Exist | The Daily Caller

‘We Can’t Fight A Flood And Pritzker Back To Back’: Mayor Of Grafton, IL, Says His City Could Cease To Exist | The Daily Caller:

Mayor Rick Eberlin says that his small town of Grafton, Illinois, could cease to exist if Democratic Governor J.B. Pritzker doesn’t allow businesses to reopen soon.
Eberlin told the Daily Caller that record flooding in recent years had forced a number of businesses back on their heels, leaving them in an already precarious position when Pritzker’s orders had closed them down.

What Will It Take To Reopen U.S.? CDC Says 'Aggressive' Contact Tracing : Shots - Health News : NPR

What Will It Take To Reopen U.S.? CDC Says 'Aggressive' Contact Tracing : Shots - Health News : NPR
"It's the question on everyone's minds: What will it take for us to come out of this period of extreme social distancing and return to some semblance of normal life?
...CDC Director Robert Redfield spoke with NPR on Thursday, saying that the plan relies on not only ramped-up testing but "very aggressive" contact tracing of those who do test positive for the coronavirus, and a major scale-up of personnel to do the necessary work..."
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Another "weapon" they will us against us.

Non-eviction order leads to squatting in style in the Hamptons

Non-eviction order leads to squatting in style in the Hamptons
"Some unscrupulous tenants in the tony Hamptons are using the state’s non-eviction order to squat in style, local landlords and real-estate brokers claim.
The short-term renters moved into their beach-town pads on Long Island before the coronavirus struck and Gov. Andrew Cuomo enacted a moratorium on evictions till at least Aug. 20 to protect those financially struggling amid the pandemic.
The tenants are now allegedly twisting the non-eviction order to their benefit, refusing to vacate their prime summer pads even though their leases are up — and exasperated local landlords say there is nothing they can do about it..."
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#1 This day 1965-----The Beatles - Ticket To Ride

C-19? Gimme break, she's 100!-----Annie Glenn, widow of former senator and astronaut John Glenn, dies from COVID-19

Annie Glenn dies - Bing
Annie Glenn, widow of the late Ohio senator and astronaut John Glenn, has died at age 100 after contracting COVID-19.
...A spokesperson for the John Glenn College of Public Affairs at the Ohio State University confirmed to the Associated Press that Glenn died at nursing home in Minnesota on Tuesday morning from complications related to the coronavirus...
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Get their names. Remember those who will steal your children's future!

Obama Officials Said On TV That Trump Colluded With Russia — They Said Otherwise Under Oath | The Daily Caller

Obama Officials Said On TV That Trump Colluded With Russia — They Said Otherwise Under Oath | The Daily Caller:

Newly declassified documents have shown that several Obama administration officials now say they saw no empirical evidence of Trump-Russia collusion, contradicting earlier statements they made on television.
Chief among these Obama officials is former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper.

Politics disguised as science-----FaceBook Censors Polar Bear Video For Including Factual Info | Climate Dispatch

FaceBook Censors Polar Bear Video For Including Factual Info | Climate Dispatch
"Facebook has labeled a recent short PragerU polar bear video as “false information” based on a ClimateFeedback review featuring statements by Andrew Derocher and Ian Stirling published 18 May 2020.
The video, posted on Facebook 5 May 2020, is also available here and here.
I was approached yesterday by Nick Coltrain, a reporter for the Des Moines Register and USA Today, asking for a statement about the accuracy of the PragerU video, which cites me as a source for two of their three ‘inconvenient facts.’

My comments are below but I reminded Nick that what is going on is a classic conflict that happens all the time in science: it presents no proof that I’m wrong or that the PragerU video is ‘false information’.
Climate Feedback is not ‘fact-checking’: it is presenting its preferred side of a disputed science issue.

STATEMENT SENT TO NICK COLTRAIN:

Thanks for the opportunity to respond. I stand behind the accuracy of the video but wish they had cited my scientific paper, my fully referenced new book, The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened, and/or The State of the Polar Bear Report 2019, also fully referenced. [links provided to Crockford 2017, 2019, 2020]

I will post a full response on my blog but would like to point out the following...

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AM Fruitcake

History for May 20

History for May 20 - On-This-Day.com
Dolley Payne Madison 1768 - U.S. First Lady, wife of 4th President James Madison, Honore de Balzac 1799 - Novelist, John Stuart Mill 1806 - Editor, philosopher


Jimmy Stewart 1908 - Actor (Philadelphia Story [1940]; The Glenn Miller Story, It’s a Wonderful Life, Mr. Smith Goes to Washington), William R. Hewlett 1913 - Co-founder of Hewlett-Packard Company (HP), Cher (Cherilyn Sarkisian LaPierre) 1946 - Singer (Sonny & Cher), actress (Moonstruck [1987]; The Witches of Eastwick, Silkwood, Mask)


1774 - Britain's Parliament passed the Coercive Acts to punish the American colonists for their increasingly anti-British behavior

1873 - Levi Strauss began marketing blue jeans with copper rivets.

LORD: The Washington Post Covers Up Obamagate | The Daily Caller

LORD: The Washington Post Covers Up Obamagate | The Daily Caller:

As recent days have unearthed now-declassified documents that plainly show multiples of Obama officials “unmasked” incoming Trump National Security adviser Michael Flynn, more detail is added to what was already a scandal involving the Obama administration’s abuse of the FBI and CIA. In the words of The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board:
“The 2016 and 2017 spying on Trump officials and then leaking to promote a false narrative of collusion is one of the dirtiest tricks in the history of American politics. It is not ‘perfectly legitimate,’ and the public needs to know the full story behind it.”
And the response of The Post to what critics have quickly dubbed “Obamagate?” Out comes an editorial titled:

San Diego official reveals only six of county's nearly 200 COVID-deaths are 'pure, solely coronavirus' deaths - TheBlaze

San Diego official reveals only six of county's nearly 200 COVID-deaths are 'pure, solely coronavirus' deaths - TheBlaze:

San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond is pushing back against California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom's stay-at-home order, revealing that most of his county's coronavirus-deaths were not directly caused by the virus.
In a radio interview last week, Desmond said only six of the COVID-19 deaths in his county were "purely, solely" from coronavirus, the San Diego Tribune reported.

The way we were-----Outrageous Ads of Times Gone By

Boob-tube-----CBS OUTTAKES & BLOOPERS

WATCH: China expert says communist regime unlike anything 'since the Third Reich'

WATCH: China expert says communist regime unlike anything 'since the Third Reich'

• China expert Gordon Chang joined Campus Reform to discuss the communist regime's attempt to infiltrate U.S. colleges.
• Chang said the communist regime is unlike anything "since the Third Reich."

Liberal Priorities-----Forty-six residents shot in Chicago? Lightfoot incensed about parties

Forty-six residents shot in Chicago? Lightfoot incensed about parties
"CHICAGO, IL.- Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot is mad. 
No, she’s really, really mad. 
During a weekend when 46 residents of Chicago were shot, 4 fatally, 
Lightfoot was in no mood to play.

Forty-six residents of her city shot? 

She had a right to be angry…but it wasn’t the shootings that Lightfoot was angry about. 
Felony failure to social distance was the “crime” she was worried about.

Over the weekend, there were reports of about half a dozen parties held around the Chicago area and that left the esteemed Chicago mayor in no mood to play. 

“We will take you to jail, period!” she admonished Chicagoans...

Mayor Lightfoot #StayHomeSaveLives

✔@chicagosmayor

I’m not playing. Stay home (your own home). Save lives.http://chi.gov/coronavirus 

“We will shut you down, we will cite you, and if we have to, we will arrest you,” she said.
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Report: Trump Says US Will Resume Funding WHO — At Same Level As China | The Daily Caller

Report: Trump Says US Will Resume Funding WHO — At Same Level As China | The Daily Caller:

Carlson reminded viewers that Trump has been extremely critical of the WHO and how it “badly mishandled and lied” about the growth of the disease. Carlson also noted that the WHO delayed calling the coronavirus a pandemic at the direction of China.
The Fox News host and co-founder of the Daily Caller noted that if the U.S. funds WHO to the same extent as China, “we won’t have the influence” but will be providing “about one-tenth” of what the U.S. treasury previously provided.

Traffic Is Way Up and the Internet Seems Fine. Did We Maybe Spend Too Much Time Ferociously Debating Net Neutrality?-- Ricochet

Traffic Is Way Up and the Internet Seems Fine. Did We Maybe Spend Too Much Time Ferociously Debating Net Neutrality?-- Ricochet
"A 1990 coronavirus pandemic would have been even worse than today’s version...no internet economy to keep us connected via Facebook, Google Meet, and Zoom. 
And no Amazon to bring us all manner of essential items without breaking quarantine.
...So thank goodness the internet hasn’t buckled, much less broken. 
Unlike in Europe, for instance, Netflix and YouTube haven’t been forced to slow down streaming speeds and reduce video quality due to higher usage. 
Everything here still seems to be working pretty well. 
But it’s easy to imagine that not being the case. 
As journalist Charles Fishman reports in The Atlantic, US internet traffic carried by AT&T surged 20 percent in mid-March, with workweek network traffic now up a steady 25 percent from the pre-pandemic period.
“That may not sound like much,” Fishman explains, “but imagine suddenly needing to add 20 percent more long-haul trucks to U.S. highways instantly, or 20 percent more freight trains, or 20 percent more flights every day out of every airport in the country. 
In fact, none of those infrastructure systems could have provided 20 percent more capacity instantly—or sustained it day after day for months.”
Yet our digital infrastructure has met the challenge. 
Or to put it another way, all those hysterical predictions about how repealing net neutrality back in 2018 would ruin the internet haven’t panned out...
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International insanity!-----People look to pool noodles, plastic hug walls and glass dining pods as ways to creatively social distance

People look to pool noodles, plastic hug walls and glass dining pods as ways to creatively social distance
"...one thing that universally remains the same is the guidance to maintain a social distance of six feet.
...For one woman in Paris, this meant attaching a meter-long flap of paper to a hat that she wore while walking around the city.
“This is a one-meter hat, please respect the distance,” her writing translates in English according to The Connexion.
...In fact, a cafe in Germany asked that its customers wear a hat with a measuring device intact. Although a pool noodle isn’t necessarily the accessory you’d think to see someone out at dinner sporting, it does the trick...
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Lunch video-----How Africa is Becoming China's China

Noon-toon

Azar: No Spike in Coronavirus in Places Reopening

Azar: No Spike in Coronavirus in Places Reopening:

Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said there has been no spike in coronavirus cases in the states that are reopening.
Host Jake Tapper asked, “Let me ask you, this is intrigue to me because some states have been reopening despite warnings of dire consequences from health experts, states like Georgia and Colorado began reopening weeks ago, and it seems at least so far that we have not seen a dramatic spike in new cases from those two states, Georgia and Colorado. What have you seen from those states? Is there any cause for concern that they reopened early? Is it still too early to tell? Or are they taking measures such as social distancing and masks that make this reopening work?”

YouTube censors epidemiologist Knut Wittkowski for opposing lockdown

YouTube censors epidemiologist Knut Wittkowski for opposing lockdown
"Big Tech companies are aggressively tamping down on COVID-19 “misinformation” — opinions and ideas contrary to official pronouncements.
Dr. Knut M. Wittkowski, former head of biostatistics, epidemiology and research design at Rockefeller University, says YouTube removed a video of him talking about the virus that had racked up more than 1.3 million views.
Wittkowski, 65, is a ferocious critic of the nation’s current steps to fight the coronavirus.
He has derided social distancing, saying it only prolongs the virus’ existence, and has attacked the current lockdown as mostly unnecessary.
Wittkowski, who holds two doctorates in computer science and medical biometry, believes the coronavirus should be allowed to create “herd immunity,” and that short of a vaccine, the pandemic will only end after it has sufficiently spread through the population.
“With all respiratory diseases, the only thing that stops the disease is herd immunity. 
...saying he had no idea why it was removed. The footage was produced by the British film company Journeyman Pictures.

• “They don’t tell you. 
• They just say it violates our community standards. 
• There’s no explanation for what those standards are or what standards it violated.”...

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