NERC ducks extreme cold grid threats From CFACT David Wojick "...Unfortunately, they ignore the greatest threat of all, which is blackouts caused by extreme, deadly cold weather...
“This assessment provides clear evidence of growing resource adequacy concerns over the next 10 years. Capacity deficits are projected in areas where future generator retirements are expected before enough replacement resources are in service to meet rising demand forecasts. Energy risks are projected in areas where the future resource mix could fail to deliver the necessary supply of electricity under energy-constrained conditions.” For example, subfreezing temperatures can create energy-limiting conditions by disrupting the natural gas fuel supplies to generators, leading to fuel-related derates or outages and potentially insufficient electricity supply.
This deliberate oversight is well hidden.
In a brief list of “assumptions” up front, we find just this easily missed partial sentence: “Peak demand is based on average peak weather conditions….”
Nothing more is said until we get to Page 126, where we find this single sentence: “Projected total internal demand is based on normal weather (50/50 distribution).”
